Early Ag Weather Watch – Aug 10

 
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES: 
HIGH TUE... 114  DEGREES AT DEATH VALLEY CA 
LOW  TUE...27 DEGREES AT TRUCKEE CA 
24 HOUR RAINFALL...NORFOLK VA 1.76 INCHES 
 
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD: 
 
    The US and European models are in good agreement through 5 days, fair-good 
days 6-10. The southern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough in the 
Gulf of Alaska and a lower amplitude flow with embedded disturbances across the 
northern US and southern Canada. The center of weaker subtropical high pressure 
will be over the southwest US. Disturbances moving along the boundary zone 
between the cooler weather to the north and the warmer weather to the south 
will be the focus of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will 
warm up ahead of these disturbances and cool down behind them.This pattern will 
continue to favor filling corn and soybeans in the major Midwest and northern 
Plains growing areas and will improve conditions for late filling corn and 
filling soybeans in the southern states as more shower activity develops in 
this area during the next 5 days as the boundary zone shifts southward. 
 
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT: 
 
MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEAN): Mostly favorable conditions will continue for filling 
corn and soybeans with no persistent hot weather and mostly adequate soil 
moisture. The only exception to this is Ohio and parts of Indiana which are too 
dry. Some beneficial rains are expected in this area during the next 5-7 days. 
 
NORTH PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Favorable conditions for filling corn and 
soybeans with adequate soil moisture and no persistent hot weather. The spring 
wheat harvest is increasing with no major disruptions. 
 
CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Sorghum/Corn/Soybeans): Some additional rain for filling 
corn and soybeans during the next 5 days. 
 
CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Mostly favorable conditions for developing 
crops. 
 
DELTA STATES (Soybeans, Corn, Cotton): Some beneficial showers and 
thunderstorms for filling soybeans are expected during the next 5 days. 
 
WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Little rainfall and above normal temperatures continue 
through Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the 
weekend as cooler air moves down from the north. This would be very beneficial 
to the crop. 
 
BRAZIL (COFFEE): Seasonally dry weather favors the harvest. No damaging cold 
weather in sight. 
 
UKRAINE and RUSSIA (Corn/Sunflower): The intense mid July heatwave in south 
Ukraine and south Russia has come to an end easing crop stress. However some 
yield losses from the recent hot spell are likely. Some dryness concerns for 
pollinating corn in the west-central Ukraine. 
 
FRANCE (Corn/Sunflower): Mostly favorable conditions for pollinating corn in 
southern France. 
 
NORTHEAST CHINA (CORN,SOYBEANS): More rain would benefit filling corn and 
soybeans in northeast China. Corn crop conditions have declined due to prior 
dryness coinciding with pollination. 
 
INDIAN MONSOON: Recent beneficial rains in the Gujarat. Some unfavorably wet 
areas elsewhere in central India. 
 
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS: 
 
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat 
 
Summary... 
 
West:  Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal with highs in the middle 
80s to low 90s.f 
 
East: Scattered light to locally moderate showers in Ohio. Mostly dry weather 
elsewhere. 
Temperatures above normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s f. 
 
Forecast... 
 
West: Dry conditions or just a few light showers today. Episodes of scattered 
showers and thunderstorms Thursday-Friday. Moderate to heavy totals are 
expected. Dry conditions or just a few light showers with locally heavier in 
Missouri Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry weather Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above 
normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal 
Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday. 
 
East: Daily episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next 7 
days. Rainfall totals for the period Wednesday-Friday will be moderate to 
heavy. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Tuesday. Temperatures above 
normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near to below normal 
Monday-Tuesday. 
 
6 to 10 day outlook... Temperatures variable. Rainfall near to above normal. 
 
Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat) 
 
Summary:  Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures 
variable. 
 
Forecast: Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally 
heavier today. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Thursday. Dry weather 
Friday-Sunday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers with locally heavier 
Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal today, near to above normal Thursday, 
near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal 
Monday, near to above normal Tuesday. 
 
6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Rainfall near to below normal. 
 
 
Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum) 
 
Summary:  Dry conditions or just a few light showers in the south. Temperatures 
near to above normal. 
 
Forecast: Dry conditions or just a few light showers through Thursday. Episodes 
of scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday-Saturday. Moderate to heavy 
totals are expected. Dry conditions or just a few light showers with locally 
heavier in the south Sunday. Mostly dry weather Monday. Dry conditions or just 
a few light showers in the south Tuesday. Temperatures above normal 
Wednesday-Thursday, variable Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, 
variable Monday-Tuesday. 
 
6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Rainfall near to below normal. 
 
 
Mike Palmerino 
 
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